项目介绍

2024年4月27日

Your function

The Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) has a new position for a PhD in flood forecasting and risk assessment. You will become part of a new interdisciplinary research programme (JCAR-ATRACE) funded by the Dutch Ministry of Infrastructure and Water. This project will assess flood risk and management in transboundary rivers and tributaries such as the Meuse and Geul between the Netherlands and neighbouring countries. You will assess how to effectively use short- to medium-term forecasts to reduce flood impacts and how this can complement long-term flood protection by levees. Your research will support cross-border cooperation to anticipate climate change.

You will further develop the existing Geographical, Environmental, and Behavioural (GEB) model, which couples a hydrological model with a decision model for adaptation measures (“agent-based model”). GEB allows to simulate how stakeholders in a river basin, such as households, farmers, governments, reservoir managers, and industry, adapt to rising flood risk but also before, during and after flood events. For example, GEB simulates how individuals may respond to events by protecting their homes with sandbags or evacuate and leave the area. Your task will be to include forecasting information from weather forecasts (e.g. ECMWF) and then further develop the GEB model such that it simulates how stakeholders use this forecasting information to act, also drawing from existing survey information from the region. By running this model over a longer time, simulating many possible events and responses, we can contrast the benefits of forecasting with long-term investments in protection in order evaluate a large set of possible measures to reduce risk of flooding.

Your main tasks are to:

1. implement forecasting information from e.g. ECMWF into GEB
2. develop decision rules in the agent-based model to simulate how people respond to flood events using the forecasting information
3. run the updated GEB model for a longer time period, and assess the pros and cons of forecasting systems as compared to long-term structural flood adaptation measures
4. use the GEB model to test forecasting and long-term measures under different climate change scenarios

The PhD project will be supervised by Prof. Jeroen Aerts, Prof. Wouter Botzen, Dr Jens de Bruijn and Dr Hans de Moel. You will collaborate with VU colleague Tim Busker (Postdoc), and 8 other international PhDs in the JCAR project. You will regularly work at our partner institute Deltares.

Your duties
An important part of the JCAR project is the integration of physical hydrological science with decision and behavioral theories from social sciences. As parts of these topics may be new to you, you are open to learn in an interdisciplinary environment together with researchers of different backgrounds. Programming and data processing skills are an important requirement as well as excellent communication skills as you will work with researchers and policymakers across borders.

• you publish research results in international peer-reviewed journals
• you teach for 0.1 FTE in Bachelor’s and/or Master’s educational programmes and supervise Bachelor and Master students
• you contribute to project tasks, meetings and activities
• you present your research findings, for example, at international conferences

Your profile

• you have a MSc degree in Hydrology, Earth Sciences, Engineering, Environmental Sciences, Computational sciences or in Earth & Economic sciences
• you possess programming skills and have experience with risk and hydrological models
• you have excellent writing and verbal communication skills in English
• you are interested in doing cutting-edge scientific research

Nice to have:

• affinity with flood management and/or climate change topics
• learning Dutch is not required but is an advantage for your research

We realise that each individual brings an unique set of skills, expertise and mindset. Therefore we are happy to invite anyone who recognises themselves in the profile to apply, even if you do not meet (fully) the requirements.